The ‘Father of Statistics’, Sir Ronald Aylmer Fisher, Must be Turning in His Grave

The Doll ‘Hospital Study’ and his ‘Doctors Study’ were reasonably thorough, but still Fisher debunked them. Why? Because they did not and could not, take other factors into account. ‘Confounders’ is the word. As I have mentioned many times before, there was a relationship, after WW2, between the increase in the import of oranges and the increase in divorces. The math is perfectly clear – the import or oranges caused the increase in divorces, OR, the increase in divorces caused the increase in the import of oranges. Which do you prefer?

So we have a rather comical report in the Sun from Saturday’s edition. (I buy the Saturday Sun because it is amusing in a sleazy sort of way, and because it has a decent TV guide). Here it is verbatim:

Big waist is linked to loss of memory.

TUMMY SHOCK (2)

Fresh evidence that middle-age spread can lead to dementia was revealed yesterday.

A study of almost 500 people lasting 20 years found fat people are far more likely to have failing memories. 

The Alzheimer’s peril was caused by insulin resistance – the condition behind type 2 diabetes.

Obesity and lack of exercise can fuel it.

Previous studies have revealed that the brain is vulnerable to the effects.

Prof David Tanne, who led the research at Israel’s University of Tel Aviv, said people who keep fit and watch what they eat reap cognitive benefits in later life.

He said: “Exercising, maintaining a balanced and healthy diet, and watching your weight will help you prevent insulin resistance.

As a result, you protect your brain”. 

Is it any wonder that Epidemiology is in disrepute? Let us copy that article and highlight some phrases:

Big waist is linked to loss of memory.

TUMMY SHOCK (2)

Fresh evidence that middle-age spread can lead to dementia was revealed yesterday.

A study of almost 500 people lasting 20 years found fat people are far more likely to have failing memories. 

The Alzheimer’s peril was caused by insulin resistance – the condition behind type 2 diabetes.

Obesity and lack of exercise can fuel it.

Previous studies have revealed that the brain is vulnerable to the effects.

Prof David Tanne, who led the research at Israel’s University of Tel Aviv, said people who keep fit and watch what they eat reap cognitive benefits in later life.

He said: “Exercising, maintaining a balanced and healthy diet, and watching your weight will help you prevent insulin resistance.

As a result, you protect your brain”. 

I did not divide the piece into those paras. That is how it was laid out, but squashed up into a column. That is, it is merely a series of sentences.

But note the number of caveats, which I have highlighted. From the caveats, it is perfectly obvious that the whole thing is the other way round. It may well be that ‘failing memory’ causes old people to eat more than they need.

“I just fancy some fish and chips. Get me some fish and chips”.

But, Grandad, you just had a big meal of fish and chips!”

“Oh, did I? In that case, nip to the shop and get me a pizza. In fact, get me two. Your grandma will pay (grandma being dead the last ten years).”

And all that is caused by ‘insulin resistance’, which the article totally fails to define.

But the Zealots have been getting away with such utter and demented crap for a couple of decades, so why should we expect any sort of ‘TRUTH’. There seems no longer to be such a thing as ‘TRUTH’. There are only variations on possibilities.

I DO NOT ACCEPT IT! 1 + 1 = 2.

It is true that we know little about the what the universe is made of at the sub-atomic level – or at the macro level, if we take into consideration our ignorance of space IS. What is Space? It is not merely distance between objects. It is a real thing. It exists. I just have a feeling that cosmologists know perfectly well that the nature of Space is of paramount importance, but they hide that discussion from ignoramuses like us bloggers.

In my experience, over the decades of my existence, middle-aged people ‘thicken up’. I am not one of them for some reason or other, although my weight grew from about 9 stone (skinny git) when I was 19, to some 11 stone in my mid-forties. After that, it fell again to around 10  stone, and is now some 9 stone.

But what should ‘Society’ do about lard-arsed obese people?

In my opinion, ‘Society’ should do nothing. People who are obese know very well that they are. If they need ‘help’, then their doctors can advise them. And what would the doctor advise? DON’T EAT SO MUCH STUFF, WHETHER ‘FAST FOOD’ OR NOT, AND WHETHER HEALTHY FOOD OR NOT. JUST EAT LESS.

I don’t know precisely how it has come to pass, but it seems to me that ‘HEALTH’ has lost any realistic meaning. Everyone is ill to a greater or lessor extent.

The interesting thing is that that might well be true. Our bodies are under continuous attack from viruses and bacteria. Eventually, in old age, they win and devour our bodies, sooner or later.

There is nothing that we can do about it.

So let’s enjoy ourselves while we can. We have so many possible little pleasures. I enjoy writing this blog; I enjoy growing my tobacco plants, even though the work involved does not justify the product – it is a hobby.

There comes a point where 60,000,000 people have to defy the Elite. And the toxic suppuration of the excretions of TobcoN must reflect back upon those who, knowingly, permitted it. Smokers have been persecuted. THERE IS NO DOUBT.

Arnott et al will get their comeuppance eventually.

Why is it taking so long?

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4 Responses to “The ‘Father of Statistics’, Sir Ronald Aylmer Fisher, Must be Turning in His Grave”

  1. thelastfurlong Says:

    Oh really enjoyed this post today. Made me feel better before I even got out of bed!

    • junican Says:

      LOL!. Glad the post cheered you up so early.
      I think that it was clearly implied, but I did not state directly that the ‘maybe’, ‘might’, ‘could’ expressions somehow translated into ‘WILL help’. But wait! ‘Will help‘. Note the word ‘help’ not ‘achieve’. So even the positive word ‘will’ is modified by the word ‘help’. Not ‘will achieve’ reduced risk, but merely ‘possibly’.

  2. Frank Davis Says:

    The ‘Father of Statistics’, Sir Ronald Aylmer Fisher, Must be Turning in His Grave?

    Surely it’s that there’s a 95% probability that Sir Ronald is spinning in his grave.

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